ABR thoughts and price

1

hi, I would like to continue some thoughts on pokt price

let’s assume that ABR is switched on with some assumptions:

  • 1,5 bln pokt monetary base;

  • supply side is 6% inflation, 7,5 mon monthly pokt;

  • demand side is 10 bln daily relays 0,000007456 usd per relays) gives 75k usd daily, 2 250 000 usd monthly;

  • supply = demand, so a speculative side is excluded from consideration;

  • 2000 servers in network (300 usd monthly maintenance payments), so operational costs of network are 600k usd, then:

  1. a balanced pokt price is 2 250 000 / 7 500 000 = 0,3 usd pokt;

  2. a delta between demand and operational costs is node runners profit 2 250 000 usd - 600 000 usd = 1 650 000 usd / 50 000 nodes = 33 usd (110 pokt), then ROI is 8,8%

then,

a) the less inflation - the more pokt price, for instance, inflation is 3%, pokt price is 0,6 usd;

b) the more relays - the more price, in case of 20 bln daily relays, pokt price is 0,6 usd plus 3% inflation will give 1,3 pokt usd;

c) the less nodes - the more ROI, in case of 25k nodes with 15k stake, ROI will be 20,8% for a node runner

a price management unlike the approach of free market with its invisible hand of Adam Smith which already led to node redundancy and price decline can be made with such measures as:

  • lowering inflation in a steeper way to one-digit;

  • ability to freeze an admittance on new nodes in the network;

  • reduction of speculative side of the network, because the less is a speculative part the more the aforementioned thoughts are closer and plausible to real numbers, by establishing a number of validators from 1000 to 2000 with min 200k stake what will help to reduce a speculative side from present 40% (800 mln staked pokt / 1,4 bln pokt) to 20% (1,1 bln / 1,4 bln) and to incentivize validators, for instance, with ROI 8,8% and servicers with less ROI of 6%

thanks!

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